Well, we’re right down to it now. The semis of Euro 2008. And I thought the players who remain may appreciate a little advice. In case things get sticky.
How do you prepare for a penalty shoot-out? Well, you can practise, I suppose. If you insist. But you should also try to read a book, work out how to understand a graph and learn how to manipulate an Excel spreadsheet.
With the help of the data collected by Castrol as tournament sponsor, the Fink Tank is going to explain exactly where to place a penalty. First, you divide up the goal into zones. David Kerwin and Ken Bray have analysed video footage of penalties to work out the area of the goal that the average goalkeeper could conceivably reach when a penalty is taken.
The time it takes a penalty to reach the goalline is half a second and the goalkeeper’s reaction time is about a quarter of a second. Therefore, to maximise his chances of saving, the goalkeeper must begin to dive (if he chooses to dive) before the penalty is struck — if he waits until the kick is taken, it will be halfway to the goal before he can move. Bray’s research showed that there are areas of the goal where the ball is “unstoppable”, even if the keeper dives early.
Second, you need to take three years of penalty statistics and look where the ball went. From this you can see what happens on average when you shoot the ball into different zones of the goal.
Fortunately, this work has been done for you. We have looked at 1,513 penalties taken in big competitions. Of these, 80 per cent were saveable and 77.7 per cent of these saveable penalties resulted in goals. This is naturally less than the proportion of unsaveable penalties that result in goals.
The problem is what happens to penalties that are aimed into the unsaveable areas. They often miss or hit the woodwork. This leads to the third lesson: realise from this data that you are making a trade-off and how good you are at penalties should influence this. The graphic provides a helpful ranking.
Finally, the timing of the penalties is important. The optimum moment appears to be between the 60th and 75th minute. After that the success rate of penalties declines, perhaps because of tiredness. This suggests that bringing players on for a shoot-out works, but it is better if they have warmed up first.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk
After the Italy-Romania game when Buffon saved the penalty kick, my sister asked me what the success rate was for PK takers. I guessed around 85-90% for the best, and looks like I hit it pretty close.
Let me see if I'm reading the charts right: if the ball hits the post/misses the goal, it's still counted in the success rate for kickers, but not for keepers. Is that right?
I don't think you've quite got that right, Katie. They don't appear to count shots hitting the post/missing the goal in the success rate for kickers (as well they shouldn't). You can tell by looking at Fernando Torres' stats, his success rate of 55% (terrible!) is from 5 goals from 9 attempts. If they counted his one shot hitting the post/missing the goal in his success rate, it would be 66%.
As for keepers, they simply remove shots hitting the post/missing the goal from the equation entirely. The success % is based purely on goals conceded and shots saved. Thus, Ricardo's amazing 50% comes from saving 4 from 8 attempts, with the 2 that hit the post/missed the goal ignored, as they seem to have decided (probably correctly, but perhaps not) that the keeper has no influence over those shots. And again, Jen Lehman: 9 faced, 1 missed/hit post, so reduce total to 8 faced, he saved 2 of those = 25% success rate.
That makes sense. I didn't have a calculator on me to check the math.
That's a pretty interesting chart, especially the keeper one, but is there another that is a graphic representation of where most of the balls land in the net?
So the jist of this is to start your dive before the kick is taken and dive to an area you can get to. This is great when you know or have an idea of where the shooter is aiming, but for us everyday keepers that don't get to see video of our opponents it's still a guess. Not knocking this at all as it is great information, just saying it is yet another element of being a professional player. Truely great players are not only great athletes but also great students of the game.
It's still a guess for the pros, to some degree. Nobody goes to the same side every time. Ballack went to VDS's right in the league game at Stamford Bridge, then to his left in the Champions League final a few weeks later. Ronaldo went to the keeper's right for most of his penalties, but went left every so often as well.
Oh for sure, but you can still play the odds more. A 16 year old can shoot to his left everytime he/she takes a PK and the opposing goal keeper would never know it. Ballack or any other pro almost have to change up their shots just because their game gets analyzed everytime.
Very true. Of course, the other factor is that knowing where a pro might go tends to be negated by how well they generally strike a ball.
Anyone notice how the Spanish keepers (Cassilias, Reina and Palop) all seem to have a similar 'style' when trying to stop penalties?? I vaguely remember Reina talking about this in the last couple of years or so??? May have mentioned one of the Spanish keeper coaches in it as well???
Sepp:Anyone notice how the Spanish keepers (Cassilias, Reina and Palop) all seem to have a similar 'style' when trying to stop penalties??
I was thinkin the same thing. After watching Casillas go the correct way on every penalty on sunday and being a liverpool fan watchin Reina save the majority or penalties in the 2006 FA Cup and 2007 CL semi final, and Palop saving 3 of 4 in the UEFA cup final a few years ago, it seems that the spanish keepers know something the rest of the GKs dont know.
And if you could bottle what the spanish keepers know that could be worth a fortune!!!
Kenny
KA Goalkeeping
"More Than Just A Pair Of Gloves"
www.kagoalkeeping.co.uk